Everyone knows that one day Bitcoin mining will end, and the coin will eventually be mined. This historic date is expected to be around 2140. So how much could the $ 100 investment today be worth over the next 120 years?
Bitcoin “To the Moon”
To estimate the future price of Bitcoin, we need to consider the growth models for this currency. The two most famous models are Parabolic Trav's super-trend Parabolic price growth model, and PlanB's Stock to Flow (S2F) price model.
We must also take into account that if hyperbitcoinization happens, and Bitcoin becomes the global currency used by everyone, and no other currency exists, there are limits to the increase. Bitcoin price leader.
In 2009, Hal Finney predicted that the price of Bitcoin would reach $ 10 million. According to Finney's estimate, he simply takes the estimate of household wealth in the world and divides it by 21 million coins.
He went to 10 million dollars each. Decrypt reviewed this idea, recalculated it with updated numbers and offered $ 18 million for each coin. Bitcoin's parabolic growth can only continue to grow until there is no more wealth and its value is converted into satoshi.
Super parabolic trend
Parabolic Trav's parabolic super trend model is strongly correlated with PlanB's stock to flow model. While many investors didn't notice the idea of parabolic growth, Bitcoin has grown 2,232.11,011.11% since Marti Malmi sold his first Bitcoin in exchange for fiat currency in 2009, ever since. reaching an all-time high of US $ 20,000 in 2017.
Bitcoin has followed an S-shaped curve of technology adoption, because while it is a “currency” it is also a new technology – which is being accepted by new users at a rate of adoption. received in the S-curve.
Considering the similarities in Trav's parabolic price model and the S-shaped curve of adopting new technology? Both are parabolas. We can see BTC follows a steeper curve than both smartphone and internet.
Bitcoin price model to flow
Stock to flow calculates the time (in years) to produce the current total supply of an asset. Stock to flow of gold is 62 years. It took 62 years of mining to produce the current global supply of gold.
PlanB's S2F model further supports this parabolic growth with the model he provides to show the impact of the Bitcoin halving event on price. Bitcoin's S2F is currently 25, but as the supply will be halved after halving, the number of BTC will be 50, closer to gold.
In the chart above, you can see that the increase in parabola overlaps with the halving event every 210,000 blocks (about every 4 years).
PlanB's model predicts Bitcoin's market capitalization will reach $ 1 trillion after the upcoming halving, or the expected price increase of $ 55,000 per BTC.
Following PlanB's model, Digitalek.net forecasts that the price of Bitcoin in 2025 is $ 1,215,730.5 per coin.
Finney's estimate follows the light of parabolic growth and S2F
Credit Suisse Bank estimates global household assets at US $ 360 trillion. Dividing this number by 21 million BTC will set the price of this asset at $ 17,142,857 per coin.
However, blockchain analyst Chainalysis estimates that up to 4 million BTC has disappeared forever, so calculate for only 17 million BTC. Using Finney's calculation of $ 17 million instead of 21 million would put BTC at $ 21,176,470.58.
Assuming Bitcoin superposition occurred in 2140, a $ 100 investment in Bitcoin at the current price of $ 8,880 – equivalent to 0.01126 BTC. This number of BTC could be worth up to $ 238,373.77 at the time the last BTC was excavated in 2140.
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According to Bitcoinist
Translated by ToiYeuBitcoin